Orange County Realtor

Analyst: 'Animal spirits' stir in O.C. ... - Lansner on Real Estate

A recent set of construction statistics on the job and housing permits front may point to a whiff of re-emerging animal spirits in some sectors of the Orange County real estate.

To be sure, the “good news” is lumpy. And just for one month. And needs repeat performances.

But recovery signs need careful watching, because even if it’s subpar it represents a stimulus to the local economy, which is still fragile in Orange County. In May, overall nonfarm jobs were up by just 1,900 in a year — or 0.1% growth, for example.

“Animal Spirits” is a colorful and popular term coined by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. What he meant by this was that the action of business people – including real estate entrepreneurs — depends on “spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectation.” Despite uncertainty about the future and the validity of proforma calculations, Keynes theorized, “the thought of ultimate loss which often overtakes pioneers, as experience undoubtedly tells us and them, (quarterback’s highlight) as a healthy man puts aside the expectation of death.”

If this is what’s beginning to happen in the psyche of major entrepreneurial decision makers in Orange County real estate, this is a huge event. It  will continue to drive the stabilization in its construction industry – of course with ups and downs from month to month. Clearly, some housing entrepreneurs such as builders and land developers have already put aside a preference for endless rounds of golf.

Does this mean the construction recovery will be booming? No, not really. The commercial real estate sector is still languishing, but something is stirring with Orange County real estate entrepreneurs.

Ultimately, the solution of the crisis in Orange County housing does not come from “doubting Mustafas” — but from sophisticated minds aiming at action. It’s all about Karma, after all, in the classical sense. Not much good comes from inaction, anyway.

G.U. wants to know …

~ So let’s get this straight…the shills of OC RE are so desperate, they are starting to rely on the metaphysical, and black magic? Nice. That says it all.

The people of Cali are something else. If you’re not in Cali, you’re no good…but then if you come to, or in Cali, you have to smell like ocean for the “white shoe boys” approval. Really? You think everyone buys into that? Hardly. If that were the case, there would be no Red White and Cruise, or Autoclub 500, or Route 66 Rendezvous. Period.

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